Question 1

How far in advance should I forecast for a festive sale?

Accepted Answer

Start four to six weeks out for the working forecast, and stage your commitment rather than buying once. Each additional month of forecast horizon commonly adds 2-5 percentage points of weighted error, so a large early buy carries materially more risk than the same volume committed in two tranches. Lock supplier capacity early; lock quantity late.

Question 2

What forecast accuracy is realistic for a promotional period?

Accepted Answer

Lower than you would expect from normal trading. FMCG and staple categories that run 10-25% MAPE in stable conditions commonly move to 25-35% during promotional events, and fashion at SKU level often runs 35-60%. Plan a range with three scenarios rather than a single number, and size your buffer to the error band you actually experience.

Question 3

How do I forecast a new product with no sales history before a sale?

Accepted Answer

Use analogue forecasting: find the closest existing SKU by category, price band and channel, apply its baseline and lift factor, then widen the error band. New products commonly run 40-60% MAPE in their first two quarters, so deliberately plan the low case and prioritise fast replenishment over deep initial stock.

Question 4

Should I use last year's sales data directly as my forecast?

Accepted Answer

Not directly. Last year's sales record what you were able to supply, not what customers wanted, so any SKU that stocked out is understated. Exclude stockout days from the baseline, add lost-demand signals such as cancelled orders and out-of-stock listing views, and separate the promotional lift into its own factor rather than leaving it embedded in the history.

Question 5

What is the single biggest mistake in how to forecast product demand before an ecommerce sale?

Accepted Answer

Applying one lift multiplier across the entire catalogue. Deal SKUs and full-price catalogue SKUs behave nothing alike during a sale, so a blended multiplier simultaneously understocks the products driving your revenue and overstocks the long tail. Segment by how each SKU is being promoted before applying any lift.

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